Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 94115.215454 99232.221846 104345.873732 109836.184921 115560.552607 121349.480169 127642.672856
2025-09-14 85907.150458 93753.242232 101810.696898 110693.163144 120199.663704 130058.238361 141044.049797
2025-09-21 79556.141528 89236.516613 99394.304304 110826.207827 123311.759582 136511.983091 151500.697299
2025-09-28 74658.438343 85700.761291 97499.047331 111007.604169 126009.856399 142123.165954 160701.065496
2025-10-05 71750.467954 84017.352195 97328.732660 112794.502489 130214.716246 149174.630272 171314.683636
2025-10-12 69121.751125 82407.650897 97027.465130 114237.502979 133867.551163 155484.499231 181011.662722
2025-10-19 66439.875501 80546.213635 96271.030746 115006.849291 136624.869713 160686.857069 189391.794514
2025-10-26 63689.734699 78444.332391 95093.889680 115157.790598 138558.647175 164865.105500 196544.357344
2025-11-02 61394.367158 76748.454624 94273.516470 115616.536950 140758.559561 169282.491608 203930.270516
2025-11-09 59040.255092 74869.716993 93136.837385 115609.380343 142334.467496 172919.030750 210374.510007
2025-11-16 57517.325686 73909.518504 93018.383114 116745.264133 145207.816430 178039.368464 218545.535262
2025-11-23 55421.700459 72167.084349 91886.147639 116597.602712 146497.282021 181257.098561 224456.221569
2025-11-30 54272.945199 71559.253149 92109.699674 118086.292606 149769.708599 186871.500879 233293.666209
2025-12-07 52932.573594 70662.433982 91939.511177 119064.575472 152410.451554 191737.571275 241269.670176
2025-12-14 51268.750103 69298.100973 91139.457863 119221.370267 154014.876898 195339.206827 247726.834855
2025-12-21 49726.079322 68030.458445 90408.520793 119417.443355 155631.333247 198934.099310 254172.825827
2025-12-28 49085.813608 67885.332402 91057.079372 121314.965918 159341.352271 205083.825921 263756.247359
2026-01-04 48317.830472 67542.367761 91429.612593 122846.607033 162589.328500 210676.455223 272687.766650
2026-01-11 47269.459890 66796.497462 91257.758135 123663.072573 164926.492083 215146.237565 280255.080420
2026-01-18 45984.120747 65697.728656 90596.748726 123823.252764 166412.947563 218551.389617 286510.375143
2026-01-25 44903.793324 64836.112206 90211.170841 124310.038236 168294.613978 222441.822290 293378.614159
2026-02-01 43664.772361 63724.716916 89466.770385 124302.444875 169522.699326 225502.483498 299212.856705
2026-02-08 42986.603044 63347.573010 89665.671052 125507.661986 172300.492203 230518.409081 307525.439544